An Empirical Assessment of the Swedish Bullionist Controversy*

In the 18th century, a fierce political debate broke out in Sweden about the causes of an extraordinary depreciation of the currency. More specifically, the deteriorating value of the Swedish currency was blamed arbitrarily on monetary causes (e.g., the overissuing of banknotes) and on non-monetary causes (such as balance-of-payments deficits). This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of this so-called “Swedish Bullionist Controversy”. The results of vector autoregressions suggest that increasing amounts of paper money did give rise to inflation and a depreciation of the exchange rate. Conversely, non-monetary factors were probably less important for these developments.     

基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。     

Unusual purchasing behavior during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: The stimulus-organism-response approach

During the COVID-19 pandemic, unusual consumer behavior, such as hoarding toilet paper, was reported globally. We investigated this behavior when fears of consumer market disruptions started circulating, to capture human behavior in this unique situation. Based on the stimulus-organism-response (S-O-R) framework, we propose a structural model connecting exposure to online information sources (environmental stimuli) to two behavioral responses: unusual purchases and voluntary self-isolation. To test the proposed model, we collected data from 211 Finnish respondents via an online survey, and carried out analysis using PLS-SEM. We found a strong link between self-intention to self-isolate and intention to make unusual purchases, providing empirical evidence that the reported consumer behavior was directly linked to anticipated time spent in self-isolation. The results further revealed exposure to online information sources led to increased information overload and cyberchondria. Information overload was also a strong predictor of cyberchondria. Perceived severity of the situation and cyberchondria had significant impacts on people's intention to make unusual purchases and voluntarily self-isolate. Future research is needed to confirm the long-term effects of the pandemic on consumer and retail services.     

碳关税的征收对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应分析

发达国家以保护全球环境为名提出了有关碳关税的政策,但是结合碳关税的相关政策内容来看,其动机是为了抑制发展中国家高能耗产品的出口,以便保证自身高能耗产品在国际的地位。我国身为纸制品出口贸易大国,一旦实行碳关税政策,将会对经济发展带来严重影响,基于此本文分析碳关税对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应具有十分重要的意义。     

张力控制系统在变频造纸设备中的应用研究

张力控制在变频造纸设备中的应用是造纸业的控制难题。本文构建了变频造纸设备张力控制系统模型,通过张力检测装置采集张力值,经PLC接收和判定,最终组成了直接张力控制系统,有效地保证了张力的恒定。同时采用Simulink工具箱,模拟和分析了Matlab软件环境下张力控制系统的仿真运行,最终证实了张力控制系统在变频造纸设备应用中的可行性,为张力控制系统的后续研究与发展指明了方向。     

短期融资券市场效率研究——基于价差分解的视角

在完全有效市场条件下,信用风险是反映信用类债券特征的最基本信息,也是决定价差的关键因素。本文通过对中国信用类债券中短期融资券的价差分解发现,虽然信用风险显著影响短期融资券定价,但市场风险才是影响其价差的最主要因素。此外,市场流动性不足降低了市场运行效率,导致流动性溢价总体为负。上述研究结果表明我国短期融资券市场化的定价机制虽已初步形成,但市场效率总体仍然偏低。     

广州废纸回收网络探讨

文中根据广州废纸回收物流的实际状况，在前人的理论研究的基础上，通过对广州废纸回收物流的现状、存在问题分析研究，探讨符合广州实际情况的，针对性、实施性强的废纸回收网络措施。     

The Federal Reserve and the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: Treating a Virus with Antibiotics? Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market

The two main explanations for the crisis in the commercial paper (CP) market are credit concerns and liquidity issues. The CP market is not homogeneous in terms of credit quality, maturities and types of issues. We find that lower credit‐quality CP suffered more during the crisis. Additionally, we find little evidence that Federal Reserve (Fed) liquidity facilities reduced the impact of the crisis, but that when the Fed became a lender in the CP market, the crisis pressures were dramatically reduced. We conclude that the crisis in the money markets is related more to increases in credit risk. Liquidity is a secondary issue.     

2011年中国货币市场展望

2010年,货币政策向常态回归,市场流动性总体较为宽松,但流动性和利率的波动幅度加大。展望2011年的中国货币市场,由于商业银行超额存款准备金率已降至低位,银行开始调整资产结构,预计法定存款准备金率的上调空间将低于2%;商业银行可用资金呈中性偏紧态势,预计隔夜回购利率均值在2.1%～2.3%;央票利率基于其价格引导作用在短期内不会超过定存利率,而扩大公开市场规模则有利于应对流动性变化。     

基于费用流的废纸动态回收网络优化设计

通过建立基于费用流的废纸动态回收网络模型并求解,解决废纸在运输网络中流动的路径问题,避免了经典运输问题无法直接体现转运和路径选择的问题,最后通过一个模拟算例验证了模型的优越性。